A superpower is a state with the ability to influence events or project power on a global scale. In modern terms, this may imply an entity with a huge economy, a large population, and strong armed forces, including air and space power and a huge arsenal of weapons of mass destruction.

Origin

When after 1945 the Cold War developed, it became clear that only two indisputable great powers remained: the United States and the Soviet Union. Superpowers became the name given to these Great Powers; differentiating the bipolar situation from the previous multipolar world. This situation lasted until the political collapse of the Soviet Union circa 1991.

If understood properly the term "Superpower" signifies only a bipolar situation. Therefore the existence of three, four or more "Superpowers" is not possible; in such a context the proper term to use would be "Great Power". Journalists and the media often do not respect such a distinction and therefore imagine situations where the USA, the EU, China and India all at the same time wield "Superpower status".

United States

The United States headed NATO, commonly known as the Western Bloc or the First World before the Cold War. In the post-Cold War era, the United States is the world's sole remaining superpower, with the world's largest economy, and spending more on the military than the next twenty countries combined.

Soviet Union

The Soviet Union was the United States' superpower rival during the Cold War. The Soviet Union was not just a superpower rival, but an ideological rival too, representing the ideology of Communism in opposition to the capitalism of the west. The Soviet Union headed the Warsaw Pact and was commonly known as the Eastern Bloc or the Second World. The Soviet Union was a military and political superpower, economically it rated as a major power with emerging power similiarities.

Superpowers in history

Although the term superpower is a recent one, the word has been retrospectively applied to previous military powers. The Roman Empire covered most of Europe, North Africa & Asia Minor. Imperial China had the world's largest navy, a record that has yet to be broken. The Mongol Empire spanned from southeast Asia to Eastern Europe. In 16th and 17th centuries the Ottoman Empire stretched from the Straits of Gibraltar to the Persian Gulf and challenged the nations of Europe in its advances along its southeastern border. At its peak in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, the British Empire covered a quarter of the Earth's land area and comprised a third of its population. It was said "The sun never sets on the British Empire." During its Siglo de Oro, Spain had possession of Italy, Germany, The Netherlands and many colonies in the Americas. After gaining independence from Spain the Netherlands empire had territories all over the globe. At various times during its history France had the largest military in the world, with colonies in western Africa, North and South America and southeast Asia.

Potential superpowers

Countries which some analysts predict could achieve superpower status in the coming decades:

• China, is normally considered to be the most likely candidate thanks to the world's largest population and the fastest growing major economy in the world (which ranks 2nd in PPP in 2004). China has nuclear weapons and the biggest army of a single state world-wide. China became the third country (after Russia and the USA) able to send humans into space. Another quite important factor is the strong and economically influential Chinese diaspora arround the world and especially in South East Asia.

The biggest obstacle: the authoritarian and dictatorial political system could bring instability in the future. The transformation into a democratic system will form a big challenge in the future.

• The European Union, if counted as a single unit has the largest economy in the world before the United States. It has the largest number of military forces of the world if counted as one. Thanks to itīs highly developed economies Europe is a leading place for science and technology. The EU already has a tremendous cultural, political and economical attraction for surrounding states. It seems likely that other important states like Turkey and Ukraine will join the EU before 2025. In the very far future even a participation of Russia in the European integration seems not apriori impossible.

The biggest obstacle: the EU at the moment is still too politically and militarily fragmented to be considered as a single power. Achieving superpower status would therefore depend on further progress in European integration and federalization.

• India, which has a population of over a billion living in a democracy, nuclear weapons, the world's 3rd largest military and 4th largest airforce, as well as a thriving economy (4th largest in PPP). India enjoys the advantage of a big and well-educated English speaking workforce. Similar to the Chinese, Indians are conscious about the richness and long history of their civilisation.

The biggest obstacle: The number one problem for a Chinese style economic "miracle" in India seems to be the poor infrastructure. Two other problems are the result of the religious/social make-up of India: the caste system and potential tensions betweens the different ethnic and religious communities.

• Brazil, which has a large population, a relatively developed S&D sector, a developed nuclear technology, as well as the potential to form the core of a united South America.

The biggest obstacle: both Brazil alone and South America together suffer under the same problems typical for development countries, for example the huge divide between rich and poor or the dependence on the markets of the developed world. Also South American unification would bring much less advantage than European unification. This is a simple consequence of geography, demographics and economics: Europe is a tiny densly populated continent with highly developed economies where integration yields very strong "synergetic" effects, South America is not.

• Russia, the most powerful of the countries of the former Soviet Union, maintains the largest nuclear stockpile in the world and possesses a huge conventional arsenal and a plentiful supply of natural resources.

The biggest obstacle: Regaining superpower status seems to be thinkable only in the case that Russia manages to restore at least the core part of its former empire (for example in form of an economic union). Otherwise the fact of Russia's relatively small population will constrain any global ambition. As independent democracies take root in Eastern Europe, (for example the Orange Revolution in Ukraine) a restoration of the empire in any form seems very unlikely.

• Other potential superpowers are not proposed often: Japan's population is relatively small, a united Africa seems unlikely and would be relatively poor, and the Arab and Islamic worlds are very divided. If the time frame is not decades but something like a century, another potential superpower candidate could be ASEAN, a united South East Asia.